Prognostics CoE Publications

This paper describes how damage propagation can be tracked and modeled for a range of fault modes in some modules of commercial high bypass aircraft engines. To that end, response surfaces of all sensors are generated via a thermo-dynamical simulation model for the engine (cycle deck) as a function of variations of flow and efficiency of the modules of interest. These surfaces are normalized and superimposed. Next, sensor readings are matched to those surfaces and – using an optimization approach – the corresponding flow and efficiency pair is found that best explains the sensor data. This flow and efficiency pair is then compared to previous pairs and the direction of the change as well as the rate of change is determined. The whole trajectory is then projected into the time domain. An extrapolation of the curve to the limit (which is established via operational margins) yields the remaining life. In a backward mode, the extrapolated curve is discretized and estimated future flow and efficiency pairs are retrieved. These pairs are then input to the cycle deck to produce future anticipated sensor readings as well as confirmatory trips of operational margins. Changes of the future sensor readings with real readings are used to adjust the remaining life calculations. The method is demonstrated on time series of historical engine faults.