On the Statistics and Predictability of Go-Arounds

Shared by Vlad Popescu, updated on Feb 07, 2011

Summary

Author(s) :
Maxime Gariel, Kevin Spieser, Emilio Frazzoli
Abstract

This paper takes an empirical approach
to identify operational factors at busy airports that
may predate go-around maneuvers. Using four years
of data from San Francisco International Airport, we
begin our investigation with a statistical approach
to investigate which features of airborne, ground
operations (e.g., number of inbound aircraft, number
of aircraft taxiing from gate, etc.) or weather are
most likely to fluctuate, relative to nominal operations,
in the minutes immediately preceding a missed
approach. We analyze these findings both in terms
of their implication on current airport operations
and discuss how the antecedent factors may affect
NextGen. Finally, as a means to assist air traffic controllers,
we draw upon techniques from the machine
learning community to develop a preliminary alert
system for go-around prediction.

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