Prognostics CoE Publications

In design process of a complex engineered system, studying the behavior of the system prior to manufacturing plays a key role to reduce cost of design and enhance the efficiency of the system during its lifecycle. To study the behavior of the system in the early design phase, it is required to model the characterization of the system and simulate the system’s behavior. The challenge is the fact that in early design stage, there is no or little information from the real system’s behavior, therefore there is not enough data to use to validate the model simulation and make sure that the model is representing the real system’s behavior appropriately. In this paper, we address this issue and propose methods to validate the model developed in the early design stage. First we propose a method based on FMEA and show how to quantify expert’s knowledge and validate the model simulation in the early design stage. Then, we propose a non-parametric technique to test if the observed behavior of one or more subsystems which currently exist, and the model simulation are the same. In addition, a local sensitivity analysis search tool is developed that helps the designers to focus on sensitive parts of the system in further design stages, particularly when mapping the conceptual model to a component model. We apply the proposed methods to validate the output of failure simulation developed in the early stage of designing a monopropellant propulsion system design.